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February 2022
Tax time is a major cash-flow event for U.S. households. 通常情况下，五分之四的申报人会在纳税季节收到退税. Past JPMCI research has shown that prior to the pandemic, 对40%的家庭来说，退税是今年最大的一笔现金注入, amounting to almost six weeks’ worth of income, and fueling an increase in both spending and balances.
This year tax time could look different. 美国国税局报告说，在处理索赔方面有大量积压, 截至2021年12月，未处理的个人纳税申报表多达600万份. 这引发了全国消费者权益倡导人士的警告，纳税人应该预料到他们2022年的退税将被推迟. In addition, 家庭正面临着劳动力市场强劲的复杂背景, rising inflation, and receding pandemic-related federal assistance. 这个纳税季会像往常一样提振现金余额和支出吗?
A Profile of Tax Refund Recipients and Early Filers
Tax filers who receive refunds tend to be younger, have lower take-home income, and have less in their savings, compared to those who owe taxes. Early filers, 可能是第一个经历国税局处理延误的人, tend to be lower-income households, 对他们来说，退税代表着更大的现金流事件. 最早申报的家庭的现金余额比晚申报的家庭低61%，收入比晚申报的家庭低28%.
从历史上看，家庭依靠退税的现金注入来增加燃料支出. Cash withdrawals, durable goods purchases, 在退税后的一周内，信用卡支付都增加了85%或更多. 但家庭也用他们的退税来满足基本需求, such as healthcare expenses and groceries. 如下图所示，在大流行之前，家庭 increased 在收到退款后的一周内，自付医疗费用减少了60%. 我们的研究表明，现金流动态不仅影响家庭支付医疗保健费用，而且影响他们实际接受医疗保健的时间, 如果家庭经常推迟护理，这可能会对健康造成更大的影响. Notably, lower income households and earlier filers, for whom the refund has a larger cash flow impact, increase their spending the most. 他们将退税的最大份额花在了面对面医疗服务等基本必需品上.
Tailwinds and headwinds for family finances
家庭面临的一系列不利因素可能会影响家庭对今年纳税时间的反应. On the one hand, households entered 2022 with higher cash balances, owing to significant fiscal supports in 2021, including stimulus, expanded jobless benefits, and advanced Child Tax Credit payments. The job market, including the most recent January jobs report, is strong, 数以百万计的职位空缺和零星的工资增长开始出现.
On the other hand, 物价上涨增加了对工资增长和退税购买力的潜在吸引力. 旨在减轻疫情最严重影响的联邦援助项目已经到期, such as expanded unemployment insurance and advanced CTC, 让家庭更直接地应对COVID-19的经济影响. CTC的一半已经以每月预付的方式支付, 符合ctc条件的家庭今年可能会获得较少的退税. 目前正在消退的欧米克隆变种曾导致数百万人工作中断. 因COVID-19感染或照顾感染者而无法工作的人数从2021年12月上半月的300万人增加到8人.7 million by early January 2022 according to Census Bureau data. Without the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, 许多受影响的工人得到的支持更少，无法弥补他们失去的工资. Student loan forbearance, providing payment relief to roughly one in six adults, is set to expire in May of 2022, just as tax season wraps up.
随着政策制定者和其他人继续评估适当的财政和货币政策反应, 家庭收支平衡仍然是金融稳定和韧性的重要风向标. We will continue to track them as tax season unfolds.
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